all bets off

All Bets Off makes sense of the different ways advanced Artificial Intelligence could reshape the world. It's a series of stories—grounded in data and expert insight—that explore future realities could look like in different places, especially where the stakes are high and preparation is thin. The idea is grounded in the assumption that the world, especially everyday people, are far too unprepared for the ways increasingly capable Artificial Intelligence will reshape their daily lives. Most jobs will look different and some will no longer exist at all. That sort of economic shift has major ramifications for people's health and wealth. Much of the dialogue is concentrated in the hubs of AI research: San Francisco, New York, London, and so on. Too little of the discussion is reaching a broad audience, especially upper and middle-class workers – accountants, lawyers, consultants – who have a lot at stake.

The journey begins with a series of short, sharp scenarios that ask: What happens if Artificial General Intelligence arrives here, at this scale, with this kind of impact?

The realities have a flavor of sci-fi but they're not pure fiction. Each different reality builds from economic forecasts, policy trends, and expert interviews. We just tell them like stories—because people engage with futures they can picture.

Over time, All Bets Off will grow: more scenarios, deeper research, and new formats—conversations, podcasts, maybe even tools. But right now, we're focused on one thing: helping people around the world think harder about what's coming—and what they'll do about it.

I'm writing this on May 29th, 2025. Dario Amodei, CEO of AI safety leader Anthropic, has just predicted that the AI boom could spike unemployment to 10–20%, largely by wiping out entry-level white-collar jobs — think software engineering, law, and management consulting.

His warning falls into a much broader debate about the future of Artificial Intelligence, especially the anticipated arrival of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) — systems capable of replicating most human tasks — or even superintelligence, where AI surpasses human capabilities entirely. There are many camps and angles in this conversation, and it can be overwhelming. To oversimplify: the best case is a radical reshaping of how we live and work; the worst is an existential threat. Either way, it demands serious attention.

One of the most immediate impacts will likely be on professional services — the very jobs that have long offered a stable path to prosperity. India's rise, for example, was fueled by its dominance in IT services and outsourced knowledge work. But these are exactly the kinds of tasks AI is poised to automate: coding, customer support, back-office operations, data processing. As AI systems take on more of this work — faster and at lower cost — the foundation of India's service-driven growth could erode.

And India is not alone. AI's effects won't be confined to early adopters like the U.S.; they will ripple globally. What happens to a services hub like Poland, whose economy has flourished as an IT outsourcing center? Or to Nigeria, if the global demand for its young, growing workforce never materializes? Or to Vietnam, whose hopes of graduating from manufacturing to a knowledge economy may be stalled by collapsing demand for entry-level services work?

These are not theoretical questions. The trajectory is clear: productivity gains will displace jobs. Which jobs, how quickly, and to what extent remain uncertain. What's certain is that disruption is coming — and most of the world, from everyday workers to government, is unprepared.

Over the past three years, I've lived and worked across three continents advising governments, start-ups, and institutions trying to navigate a rapidly shifting global economy. I've spent time in New York skyscrapers, Mexican cafés buzzing with tech entrepreneurs, and Saudi ministries dreaming up national transformation plans. And while my day jobs have focused on economic development—particularly labor markets—AI has increasingly found its way into every room I've been in.

My perspective has been shaped not just by policy and consulting work, but by proximity to those at the frontier. My partner leads product at a company focused on aligning large language models with human intent, and I've spent the past few years watching the field evolve from the sidelines (with growing concern).

What changed for me wasn't just the technology itself, but the silence that surrounds it in much of the world. In Silicon Valley, the risks of AGI are hotly debated. Elsewhere, particularly in emerging markets, the conversation is often one-dimensional: framed as opportunity, not exposure. I started All Bets Off to help correct that imbalance.

Right now, we're building our first reality. That means digging into economic data, talking to experts in tech, policy, and labor, and shaping a vivid picture of what a future in 5 years' time might look like, grounded in specific geographies that have a lot to lose.

As we grow, each scenario will become more detailed, more representative, and more dynamic—drawing in new expertise and fresh perspectives from around the world. Our goal is to build a living library of futures: grounded in real data, sharpened by expert insight, and told through compelling, human-centered stories.

To start, these realities will take the form of short written pieces. Soon, we'll expand into live conversations, podcasts, video storytelling, and more—formats that make these futures real and accessible.

Ultimately, All Bets Off aims to become a central news and analysis hub focused on the intersection of the workforce and AI. That includes scoring the likelihood of different scenarios, spotlighting emerging trends, and amplifying real, on-the-ground experiences from people across geographies and sectors.

We're just getting started. But if AI is going to change the world, the world deserves a voice in how it unfolds.